Time For A Paradigm Shift

In the past week, 2 closers (B.J. Ryan and Billy Wagner) have signed contracts for a combined total of $90M. That is the very near the Cardinal’s total salary last year and most likely the total salary this year. In one fell swoop these 2 guys will be making that much for the duration of their time with their respective teams. Last winter was insane too, terrible pitchers like Russ Ortiz were getting $30+ Million dollar contracts.

More recently, the Blue Jays have offered possible Cardinal outfield target Brian Giles a 5 year $55M contract. This is nuts. There is no way a team like the Cardinals who have $17M to spend can sign a deal like that. Their current target, A.J. Burnett is asking a starting price of $50M for 5 years. And with teams like the Mets and Blue Jays going on big spending sprees the price can certainly be driven up and up.

While Walt Jocketty can be very creative and has made some terrific trades in the past, this is becoming increasingly difficult given the current state of our farm system and how greedy GM’s have become. Take last year’s trade for Mark Mulder, for instance. (Not again!) We traded one a major league-ready prospect in Danny Haren and our best hitting prospect in Daric Barton (whom many regard one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball) for Mulder who had a very solid yet unspectacular season. If we had held on to Haren we could’ve got nearly the same type of production at a fraction of the cost, and had even more money going into this off-season. And we would have a player who is a year away from starting.

What I am driving at is this:

Maybe it’s time to get out of “win now” mode. (Or at least the “win now” mode as we know it) Maybe it is time to focus more on developing home grown talent and less on chasing after big name talent. I’m not saying the Cardinals should have a fire sale and try and rebuild, obviously that is unnecessary given our loyal fanbase. I am saying that it is time we begin to quit looking at the trade and free agent market so much and start building a lot more from within. There is something about homegrown talent that interests fans. It’s fun to watch a player work his way up to the big leagues and play with the team that he signed with instead of watching him get traded away for an older “proven” veteran. Look at teams like the Atlanta Braves and Oakland A’s. The A’s had 3 rookies in the running for the AL ROY and just missed out on the playoffs, and the Braves had 20 some-odd rookies play for the team during their injury riddled season last year and still managed to be 1st in their division.

In the last few years, the Cardinals have had one of the worst ranked farm systems in baseball. There is light on the horizon, as Baseball America recently ranked the Cardinal’s draft as the 4th best draft of 2005. And the Cardinals have finally opened an academy in the DR where kids play baseball morning, noon and night. These are steps in the right direction. I hope we continue to see more investment in developing players. And I hope we see less of chasing big names if possible, as they are becoming more and more ridiculously expensive. While we have a good sized $90M budget and a brilliant GM we are beginning to feel the effects of how difficult it is to build a team with that type of stategy. I’d prefer a mixture if at all possible. That way we actually have prospects to trade when the right situation comes along. I’m not saying eliminate going to the free agent/trade well altogether, but it would be nice not to have to depend on it as much as we have in the past.

If the Cardinals salary projects to stay in the current range for the next few years and if the free agent market continues to skyrocket, it will become a neccessity.

The Pilot Light Went Out

The Hot Stove is not so hot right now. Over the long weekend not much surfaced as far as movement or rumors go, there were a few out there, but certainly none that will make you jump up and down with excitement.

One rumor has it the Cardinals have made an offer to Jacque Jones, 3 years, $20M. Well, this would be a good deal only if you can somehow turn back the clock to 2002 or 2003 on Jones’s career. But since ‘04 he hasn’t been worth his weight in salt. I know playing in St. Louis can bring out the best in a player, but I wouldn’t count on it here.

Another rumor out there has the Cardinals interested in John Flaherty as our backup catcher. Yuck. Flaherty is coming off his worst year so far at .165/.206/.252. That’s You Got Served bad. I guess the Cardinals are thinking more about his veteran “clubhouse” status and nothing else. I know the Cardinals have a fetish for no hitting catchers, but this is ridiculous…

On a more interesting note it’s rumored that the Cards are interested in Mark Sweeney. I hope this one is true as Sweeney would be great off the bench. He was a Cardinal to start his career, and has improved with age. Last year his line was .294/.395/.466. He kills the Cardinals, so having him on our side would at least one reason to sign him. He can play 1st base and the corner outfield positions. Seems like a perfect fit.

The Birdhouse states the Cardinals are interested in Joaquin Benoit as a reliever. He’s been good at that role, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him as a replacement for Al Reyes.

Speaking of the bullpen, Cal Eldred retired. He’s a hometown hero here in Eastern Iowa, I hope one day I’ll bump into him somewhere. I’d like to salute him for his gutsy efforts in coming back from so many injury issues, most notably his recent heart condition. He’s always been suprisingly effective for the Cardinals. Cal’s a good guy and I’ll miss seeing him in Cardinal red. I wonder if somehow Mike Matheny will talk him out of retirement again and into playing for the Giants.

In continuance of my KPLR’s Bob Carpenter impersonation-speaking of relief, did you hear a urinal went for over $2000 at Fredbird’s garage sale weekend? The urinal was bought by a couple urologists who figured it would give their patients a “good chuckle”. Nothing like a urologist with a good sense of humor. Talk about money p’d down the drain. I’ll have to make sure their office is my “number one” on my list whenever I have to take my next drug test. (Thank you ladies and gentlemen, you are too kind. I’ll be here all weekend, be sure to try the veal!)

There is also a very encouring and interesting ongoing report over at the P-D about the Cardinals new Academy in the DR.

Should the Cards get in on the Marlins Firesale?

Well, the Fish are at it again. The Red Sox now have Mike Lowell & Josh Beckett. The Mets got their coveted 1st sacker in Delgado.

Anyway, the Cardinals could take advantage of a good oppurtunity here. Last I heard Castillo and Pierre are on the block. And the outfield and the keystone are part of the pieces the Cardinals are looking for. Once upon a time the Fish had a fire sale we got an All Star shortstop named Edgar Renteria who manned his position pretty well for 6 solid seasons. Maybe Jocketty should strike again.

Castillo is the guy who beat out Grud for the Gold Glove this past season. Defense is always an emphasis with the Redbirds, and he would be perfect with this groundball pitching staff. He doesn’t steal bases like he used to, but he’s an on-base machine and hits for a high average. He could be an excellent, yet un-LaRussian fit in the 2 hole of the lineup. He’s $5 Mil for next season and has an option for 07 at $5.75M. Pricey, but remember the Cardinals last winter were prepaired to offer Placido Polanco a good-sized contract that his agent failed to tell him about. That still irks me to say the least.

Pierre will most likely go elsewhere-ie the Cubs or maybe even the Yankees who are looking help in centerfield, but he could be a decent fit in left field in St Louis. Juan would be a throwback to the Whiteyball days. He slumped at the plate last year, but should bounce back. Pierre is fairly cheap at $3.4M in ‘06 and then his contract is up after that. While getting Pierre may be more far-fetched, he is a hard-nosed player who works very diligently at his craft, qualities which are always considered excellent “Cardinal virtues”. Pierre is also a good bunter, another aspect of the game the Cardinals value.

I’d prefer Castillo to Pierre but either could be a decent move. It would come down to what we would have to give up to obtain them. Both the Mets and the Red Sox gave up some top prospects, a hitter and a pitcher from each team. Pierre would probably hold the most value in a trade. Again, I’d rather see Castillo and I think he could be had for less.

There is no way we should give up the caliber of prospects the Red Sox and Mets gave up to get Castillo but I would be willing to entertain whatever offers the Fish can feasibly come up with if I were Walt.

There are also other Marlins the Cardinals could look to obtain. From the bullpen they have the likes of Mota and Villone, both intriguing options. Last time the Marlins had a fire sale after the 03 season, Walt sat it out. We’ll see what he does this time.

Prospect Report-High and Low A level

First of all hats off to the Florida State League Champion Palm Beach Cardinals. In case you missed it, in the deciding game Jarrett Hoffpauir hit a solo homerun in the top of the 10th to break a 4-4 tie and Mark Worrell shut the door in the bottom of the inning, winning the series. Good stuff.

Mark Worrell
The FSL saves leader with 35 in 53 appearances with a 2.25 ERA with 53 K’s. From what I hear he doesn’t throw particularly hard but has a funky pitching delivery that makes him very deceptive. So far is professional career is off to a great start and I’m sure we will hear more about him in the future.

Eric Haberer
A former Saluki lefty who doesn’t fan a lot of batters and could work on his command a bit, but between Quad Cities and Palm Beach, he went 12-8 with a 3.12 ERA. Has one of the better curves in the system.

Tyler Greene
One of our #1 draft picks. Played for Palm Beach in his first year out of college and the Cardinals are expecting big things out of him. Has good range and arm; all the makings of a good shortstop.

Reid Gorecki
Why exactly is he on the 40 man roster? We keep hearing about his defense, but he couldn’t hit at the AA level so he got shipped back down to Palm Beach. The guy’s going to be 26 for crying out loud. We need to protect someone else besides him from Rule 5.

Low A- The Swing of the Quad Cities

Our new Davenport, IA affiliate with the ugly powder blue jerseys. Talk about an incentive for a promotion. I’d do anything to get out of Davenport, especially when the next step is beautiful Palm Beach. The Swing set some offensive records this year along with the change which is a good sign for a system that has a recent history of being pretty thin in the hitting department. The records set were in some key areas-homeruns, hits, extra base hits, slugging, and runs batted in.

Nick Stavinoha
I watched him play against the home town Kernels this year. From what I saw, he was the real deal. Everything he hit he stung. He hit Pujolsian-liner of a home run to the opposite field. Finished the year with a .962 OPS, 14 home runs and 53 RBI’s in 250 AB’s, fanning only 25 times. Lookout. He would’ve been drafted higher then the 7th round but he’s not the most athletic guy. They said the same thing about Pujols. Whether there will be any more comparisons is questionable as Pujols is in a class by himself, but I like what I see so far.

Matt Shepherd
It’s his .402 OBP I’m excited about. Plus his 22 stolen bases. No wonder the Swing fared so well in the RBI category when this guy was setting the table. He knocked in a good deal of ribbies himself as well. Could stand some improvement with the glove with his 35 errors at SS.

Matt Lemanczyk
.350 OBP and 48 stolen bases. He has talent, but he’s too old to be in Low A all year and still be considered a prospect.

Juan Lucena
Rarely strikes out, but rarely walks either. Hits for a high average mostly by slapping singles. He’s going to be playing winter ball in his native Venezuela.

Mark McCormick
There is a thought out there that he should move to the closer role. He has a blazing fastball but is wild. I saw him pitch in person and he was either striking the opposition out, walking them or hitting them. (Ouch!) Once he gets better control of his fastball and trusts his curve more he could be a dominant closer.

Nick Webber
Was a reliever in college, now a starter in the minors. Will most likely go back to the bullpen as he progresses. Could move quickly in the Cardinal system because of Dave Duncan’s fetish with grounballing, sinker-ball pitchers.

Prospect Report-AA

I’ve never visited Springfield, MO but I’ve driven through there on my way from Tulsa to St. Louis and it seems like a nice town. Not too large to where you feel claustrophobic and not too small where you would be totally bored if you lived there. Well, there was a recent attraction added there this year, namely the Springfield Cardinals which fielded a decent team of prospects. Especially in the hitting department.

Cody Haerther
The young outfielder showed some pop between Palm Beach and Springfield, hitting 18 homers and slugging .500+ at both levels. Also batted nearly .300 at both levels. Did get the call to AFL but didn’t fare well there. Will likely start next year in Memphis.

Travis Hanson
36 errors? Maybe he’s miscast in the infield. This was a breakout season for Hanson power-wise, hitting 20 homers and slugging .458. Also played in AFL, but got off to a slow start. Recently made his country proud, hitting .333 for Team USA. I thought baseball was done in the Olympics…? He’s made a good impression, recently an addition to the 40 man roster. Most likely Memphis bound.

Brendan Ryan
According to Baseball America, he’s our best athlete in the system. More importantly is that everyone says he plays the game hard. Brendan is improving in the field as a shortstop. Doesn’t hit for much power, probably never will. He does get on base enough and has enough speed to be a solid lead off hitter and his plate discipline should continue to improve. Also added to the 40 man recently after playing professionally for only 2 and 1/2 years.

Rick Ankiel
We all know the story. I thought he was nuts. I thought he was done. I doubted he actually could hit everyday. But in 321 AB’s he hit 21 homeruns, knocked in 75, slugged .515 splitting time in Low A and AA and proved me wrong. He recently was added to the 40 man roster. LaRussa “loves” him, so he’s going to get every shot and I hope he succeeds. I just wonder…. if he can’t handle the stress of pitching every 5 days, how will he handle it if he plays outfield every day? Last I saw the Ankiel-O-Meter in SI Rick was rated less like Mendoza and more like Mantle. It will be interesting to see what he does next year.

Chris Lambert
Was successful in A ball then hit the wall in AA. A lot of pitchers do. Most recently struck out 9 in 5 innings for Team USA, so he left his season on a high note. While our previous #1 draft pick had a rough season overall this year, I look for him to bounce back in AA next year.

Cory Doyne
Moved up quickly and became Springfield’s closer. 19 saves and a 1.95 ERA in 55 innings. Pitched in the AFL, but struggled like most pitchers do. We could always use more bullpen help and Cory looks to move pretty quick up the ladder.

AJ Burnett?

Foxsports and ESPN are reporting the Cardinals as one of the teams pushing seriously for AJ Burnett. He is going to cost around $10m a year for 5 years. Apparently there are 2 offers on the table now, one of them from the Blue Jays.

If the Cardinals sign him, I would have to assume they are going to trade Jason Marquis and maybe even Adam Wainwright somewhere in order to get their outfield help and forget about signing Giles. Giles may be out of the question anyways, as they Yankees are seriously courting him. If we do this, Burnett would be the highest paid pitcher on the staff. I know he’s got a 98 mph fastball, but he also has a losing record and a rep for having a bit of an attitude. That may not mean much as he’s been on a semi-mediocre club for his career, and pitching for the Cardinals can do wonders for the win-loss column, as well as a pitcher’s overall happiness.

Burnett grew up in North Little Rock, AR. That’s certainly Cardinal country and he may have dreamed of pitching for the Cardinals in his younger days. He’d be close to home which is a nice perk. I am excited that the Cardinals are trying to be players in the market, but I have to wonder if this is the wisest move, given our immediate needs.

But I see some logic in this. I think after getting outpitched by the Astros in the playoffs the Cardinals are taking a page out of the Astros book-Offense and good pitching can win 100 games, but even when you have less offense, if you have shut down pitchers you can still win. Especially the short series.

Carpenter
Mulder
Burnett
Suppan
Reyes

That’s a formidable staff, one that could dominate in the playoffs. Given our offense, getting there shouldn’t be the trouble. And with this rotation, winning there could be more of a prospect. On the negative side-It’s $50 Freakin’ Million Dollars! He does draw some Kerry Wood comparisons from others given his high ceiling/injury history. I dunno…

Prospect Report-AAA

I won’t take a lot of time to expound on the Memphis Redbird’s season, as the whole point of being in the minors is to get to the majors. And for the most part, we didn’t have any prospects in AAA, just fill-ins. Guys like Raul Gonzalez, Ricky Stone, Brandon Berger and Bill Pulsipher. And washouts like Jim Journell and Carmen Cali. Of course there was what most considered our 2 best pitching prospects in Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes. There was some talent in AAA this year, starting with pitching-

Anthony Reyes-Here is an interesting stat-Reyes has a 5:1 K to walk rate in his MiLB career. He set a Memphis Redbird game record with 15 K’s in a game, the start after he made his impressive major league debut against the Brewers. He pitched well in 3 relief outings with the big club as well. He’s a future ace, if he can stay healthy. He’s fun to watch too, with his sideburns, flat-brimmed hat, funky pulled-up striped socks. Many compare him to ex-USC teammate and buddy Mark Prior. Likely to fill in the spot vacated by Matt Morris, the future has arrived in St. Louis and it looks pretty bright.

Adam Wainwright-Rough year. 4.40 ERA to go with a 10-10 record. Not really what you would hope for coming from a guy who was the so called center-piece in the Drew trade, but I wouldn’t give up on him, either. My guess is he was so hyped this year that when he struggled it probably got into his head and screwed with him. He didn’t look to hot in relief in St. Louis, either. My guess is he will be fine, bounce back and maybe even be in the mix mid-late ‘06.

Tyler Johnson-Started his year in an Athletics uniform as a Rule 5 pick, didn’t pan out and was sent back to the Cardinals. I’m happy it didn’t work out, because I think he has a future. Much more of a future then the inept Carmen Cali. In 59 innings he struck out 77, pretty impressive. He will likely be given a shot to make the roster this spring. If the Cardinals are smart, the will find a taker on Ray King, regardless if he has kissed and made up with management.

Chris Duncan-I don’t really buy the whole nepotism thing that some Cardinal fans spout off about Chris Duncan. Maybe you can say it about the recently departed Cody McKay, but li’l Dunc (who actually is not so little) earned his September call-up and could make at least a decent bench-player, a la John Mabry. He showed some decent power in AAA, posting 21 homeruns and an .827 OPS. He will also be an answer in Cardinals trivia, as he was the last St. Louis Cardinal to homer in Busch Stadium 2 during the regular season.

Skip Schumaker-Made a nifty grab on a foul ball September 8th verses the Mets. He has speed and hits for a decent average, and seems pretty good in the outfield. I think he could help off the bench next year, but will more likely be the Memphis squad’s leadoff hitter to start the season. He is at least worth keeping an eye on.

John Gall-They finally called up John Gall this year. John Gall did what John Gall does, which is hit. I think he too could be a part of a decent bench next year, or we should at least have mercy and let him try and earn a big league spot elsewhere. He’s going to be 28 this season, too old to be considered a prospect but too talented to not merit a shot. He’s obviously no replacement for the recently retired Larry Walker, but he’s no AAA player either.

El Hombre Gets His Due

Shock! The most valuable player was actually voted the Most Valuable Player! Congrats to the Machine, aka The Great Pujols, aka Prince Albert, aka Phat Albert, aka El Hombre, aka the greatest baseball player I’ve ever witnessed, aka Jose Alberto Pujols!

It’s been a long time coming, the first of many more to come I am sure.

I Reiterate-Pujols Should be MVP!

val·u·a·ble adj.
1. Having considerable monetary or material value for use or exchange: a valuable diamond.
2. Of great importance, use, or service: valuable information; valuable advice.
3. Having admirable or esteemed qualities or characteristics: a valuable friend.

Let’s look at Pujols by the definition’s standards, starting from the financial aspect. Using THT’s Net Win Shares Value Calculator,Albert Pujols’ performance was worth about what Manny gets paid. $20,052,914. That is around $9M more than when Pujols got paid this year. What about Andruw Jones? He got paid $13M this year. His value was calculated to be $9M. So according to these calculations, Jones was actually overpaid to the tune of $4M, while Pujols was underpaid $9 or so. (Feel free to take the calculations with a grain of salt, I’m not a sabermatrician, I can’t figure it all out, but I do trust the math nerds that come up with this stuff.) What does that have to do with the MVP race? Nothing, but I did think it was interesting. So that sums up the monetary value side of the defininition, let’s look at the great importance, use or service side.

This is easy, think about the 2005 Cardinals. Now think about the 2005 Cardinals without Pujols. I think we would’ve been somewhere between trailing the Astros for 1st place and fighting off the Brewers for 2nd. Imagine if John Mabry or Chris Duncan were manning 1st base instead of Pujols. Not a pleasant thought. I could rattle off the numerous statistics that prove that Pujols is the most valuable player at least statistically, but I think by now that knowledge is pretty common. Okay, what the hey! 41 HR, 117 RBI, .330 BA, 1.039 OPS, 129 Runs, etc, etc, etc. Now, to my favorite element of the definition. Esteemed qualities and characteristics.

At 25, Pujols is the leader of the team. He plays almost everyday. If he’s hurt, he plays through it. I know Cardinals fans all hold their collective breath when they read in the paper about Pujols’ foot acting up and yet he runs hard to take an extra base, or steal a base, or run down a bunt to throw out the runner at 2nd. He plays the way a superstar should play, with hustle, toughness and determination. He is the Anti-Manny being Manny. He’s a teammate. He’s a leader. You don’t see him always jawing with the other team stars like Rolen or Edmonds. He’s hanging out with the lesser knowns like J-Rod, Hector Luna, or Yadi. When Yadi was struggling at the plate, it was Pujols who lent a helping hand. When Eckstein hit his walk-off grandslam against the Braves, it was Pujols who was the first to charge out to congratulate the hero of the day.

He is the superstar you want your kid to emulate. He was nominated for the Clemente award for his service off the field. When the Cardinals lost the NLDS, he came back out to the field to greet the fans with his little boy in his arms, with a smile still on his face despite losing one of the most important games of his life. He was the man that brought us back to Busch for one last goodbye. And while I know you don’t have to be a great person to win the MVP, (just ask Barry Bonds) I do think at least being recognized as a good teammate and a good guy in addition to the stats should at least merit a few extra points.

I don’t know how much the voters will take these things into consideration, or even should take into consideration. But I do know regardless of tomorrow’s announcement, Pujols is the MVP to me. He is the greatest player I’ve ever witnessed. The BBWAA can’t ignore him forever. Pujols fits the very definition of what makes a Most Valuable Player.

Hagin Out, Rooney in

According to Bernie Miklasz at the P-D, we are replacing “YOU CAN KISS IT GOODBYE!” to “It’s a goner!”

I will always remember Hagin for his Jim Edmonds home run call in Game 6 of the 2004 NLDS. And unfortunately for his flap about Todd Helton. I don’t know if that has anything to do with this sudden change. Regardless, all I have heard about John Rooney so far is very good. He most recently announced for the White Sox. He’s a Missouri native, too.

From what I hear he is very good and keeping people updated on what’s going on in the game, something you couldn’t really say about Hagin. Or Shannon for that matter. Maybe Shannon can take a page out of his book. Who am I kidding?! At least Shannon will more likely have better chemistry with Rooney then he did with Wayne, which should make for some fun times.

Welcome to St. Louis, Mr. Rooney.