2006 ZiPS Are In

Well, the Cardinals ZiPS projections are in. I’m no sabermatrician (is that a real title?) but I enjoy the stuff they put out. The Birdwatch looks less then enthused on our outlook for 2006, while Fungoes seems to like it. Both of those bloggers are far more left-brained than I. My off the hip reactions:

• I have to pinch myself at the thought that Albert Pujols plays for my favorite baseball team. He is God’s gift to Cardinal fans. Begin the talk of a Triple Crown!
• Having Rolen back will be a big. Hopefully he gets more then 418 AB’s.
• Correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t ZiPS usually tough on pitchers? If so Carpenter looks to build on his success, verses the regression many are speculating.
• Put Anthony Reyes in the rotation now. (4:1K/BB. 3.72 ERA) I also will purchase my trade Jason Marquis t shirt.
• The computer likes Adam Wainwright about as much as it likes Suppan & Ponson. It is unlikely to happen this year, but I do wonder how Wainwright would respond if thrust into The Show. He looked bad out of the pen last year, and struggled in AAA.
• After much bellyaching, our Festivus signings of Encarnacion & Spivey look to be quite decent. I hope Encarnacion can pull it off that projection. And hopefully Spivey doesn’t hurt him self playing tee-ball or something off the wall again.
• That bullpen should beat that projection, at least I hope. Looks like it may be a little more shaky than we’d all like it to be.
• John Rodriguez looks like he could be our starting LF next year. Larry Bigbie may not be great, but I think he could easily beat that projection. If I were him, I’d print it off and put it in my locker for motivation. (Though I doubt he ever sees it.) It will be interesting to see how the LF situation plays out this year. BigRodUchi of 06 is a least an upgrade of LankBryAndercedeno of 04. Maybe something will happen midseason as in 04.

Speaking of Rodriguez, here is his latest #’s from the DR.

Player AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SLG OBP

.362 24 69 12 25 5 0 6 25 11 10 .696 .446

Pretty impressive.

 

Just Enough?

Dayn Perry has an article that makes me feel warm and fuzzy. It is true, the offseason has been overstated as a shipwreck. If it has been a shipwreck it’s been more of a SS Andrea Doria (if that) and less like the Titanic (or George Costanza’s life.) I think it is true that Spivey could represent and upgrade over Grud. I think it is true that Bigbie/TagRod & Encarnacion could provide decent enough offense, possibly even an upgrade from the 05 OF. I too think Rincon and Looper represents an improvement over King and Tavarez.

But I don’t think the offseason helped us come closer to winning a championship, either. I think it helped us maintain to stay around the same status we’ve been for a while now. And that is status good enough to win the Division, but not good enough to be a champion, something Braves fans have come to despise. Call me spoiled but I’m tired of all the build up of winning throughout the regular season only to watch it come to nothing.

Personally, I feel the Cardinals are one pitcher and maybe one outfielder away from a championship, but we passed on the pitcher that may have been able to do that. In the end I felt good that we didn’t match the Blue Jays offer, especially after hearing some of the nauseating perks in the contract. But I will wonder what could’ve been…..

Help on the way? Jason Schmidt could be on the block if the Giants season goes down in flames. If Bonds doesn’t stay healthy, it most certainly will. Jose Conteras is already rumored as being on his way out as the White Sox are looking to work in Brandon McCarthy. He’s got some great stuff and playoff experience. And of course there’s always planet Zito. I know Beane says he’s staying, but you got to think in a contract year Beane will certainly deal him. All three pitchers make decent money, and if one of these guys are what it takes to get us over, it will give ownership a chance to put their money where their mouth is and finally shut Bernie Miklasz up.

On a side note, as you all can see I’m having trouble getting settled on a design here. Big thanks to poster BKMLB @ cardsclubhouse for the graphic, as I have no photoshop as of now. Here’s more of his wallpaper work.

It’s a good winter to be a so-so outfielder

Juan Encarnacion 3 years, $15M, 30 years old, PrOPS .771

Jacque Jones 3 years, $16M, 30 years old, PrOPS .791

Jeromy Burnitz 2 years, $12M, 36 years old, PrOPS .770

Reggie Sanders, 2 years, $10M, 38 years old, PrOPS .843

Well, at least it looks like the Cardinals paid the going rate for Encarnacion. It also explains why we didn’t resign Reggie. I love the Sandman and all, and I wouldn’t really categorize him as a so-so. He’s the best hitter of the bunch, but at 38 you wonder if he’s due to fall apart at some point during that contract. When he does decide to retire, I think he has a future in broadcasting. He really is a nice guy, and I wish him & Grud all the best in KC.

Jeromy Burnitz is a putrid signing. I thought he would’ve made a decent signing for the Cardinals, but I was thinking more like $2.5m for 1 year. $12m for two years is insanity, and makes Juan Encarnacion look like a real bargain. It must not be much fun to be an O’s fan these days. SC at Camden Chat sums it up this way. “Burnitz had a couple good months last year (April and June), and so did the Orioles, so I guess he’ll fit in. He was a floating turd in the toilet of the Cubs season for the majority of the year though. He’s a clearly declining player well past his prime.”

Jones seems now to be an okay signing for the Cubs in these present conditions. We all thought it was funny when the Cubs signed him, only to have Encarnacion signed a week later in a weird twist of irony. Anyway, Jones still should be platooned, but as long as Dusty’s still in charge I doubt that he will be. Preston Wilson looks to be the next in line. He’s only 31 and has better career hitting stats then Jones & Encarnacion. He should stand to get at least a similiar deal as Jones, if not more. Word is the Cubs are interested. (That should squash the Tejada for Prior trade rumors, for now.)

As far as Encarnacion goes, I’m a little over it now. I think he may be the best of this bunch. After getting schooled in the class of Professor MGL and UZR, and taking a look at his ZiPS projections,I’m not as upset. I think Enc was probably the best choice the Cardinals could’ve made , and I’m alright with it now. There, I said it.

Matt Lawton looks to be a steal now. He was like a leper, no one seemed to want to touch him due to the whole steroid controversy. Then he was scooped up by the M’s almost immediately after he apologized. And now the most he will make this year is a little over a mil if he qualifies for all the incentives. Yet he’s around the same skill level as these guys, but I guess this serves as more punishment then just a 10 game suspension. That should serve as a lesson to the kiddies. “Don’t juice kids, or you’ll get signed to be Raul Ibanez’s/Carl Everett’s backup for millions of dollars less then your peers.”

Sutter and The HOF

Reading a good article over at Get, Up Baby! about ex-Cardinals on the current HOF ballot got the wheels turning in my head a little bit. About a week ago, I was all for Bruce Sutter getting into the Hall. I agreed with some, figuring he had a great career, chalked up 300 saves, pitched a lot more innings per season then our modern closer, and changed the game by perfecting the split-finger fastball.

But now, I’m not so sure. Just judging by the Win Shares stat, and comparing Sutter with other relievers already enshrined & other relievers on the ballot, Sutter doesn’t quite seem to be Hall material.Current HOF
Eckersly 301
Wilhelm 256
Rollie Fingers 188

On current ballot-
Lee Smith 198
Goose 223
Sutter 168
Wetteland 127
Aguilera 147

So at least according to Win Shares, the order is Gossage first, then Lee Smith, then Sutter, followed by Aguilera and Wetteland for the current guys on the ballot.

Then I checked into Baseball-reference.com’s HOF Monitor. According to the Hall Monitor, Goose & Smith are shoo-ins compared to Sutter. Gossage compares most with already enshrined greats Wilhelm & Fingers. And Lee Smith rates a whole 10 points higher (136/100) then Gossage, due to his 400+ saves. Sutter checks out at a 91. Aguilera (who doesn’t stand a chance.) rates a 90 for what it is worth. I’m not saying the HOF monitor is an end all, but it is a decent measurement, especially when judging a closer.

But I don’t fancy myself an expert, especially when it comes to the Hall so if you differ and can explain why Sutter belongs, tell me why. But until you can tell me different, I sadly have to say no to Sutter. (Not that I have a vote. If I did, maybe I’d let him in, for a price…) Voting him in would lower the bar a little bit. Sutter does have a better chance then usual, given this current class. But if a closer is going to go, it should be Gossage. On a side note, I do hope voters do at least finally recognize Blyleven this year, as he is, in my opinion, the most deserving out of the group.

EDIT 4:05PM:Here is an article by Scout’s Bill Gilbert, on rating the 06 candidates by Win Shares.

Hey ladies…

I didn’t know this about new Cardinal outfielder, Larry Bigbie.-

“After the 2004 season, the producers of the reality TV show, “The Bachelor”, approached Bigbie’s agent about the outfielder being the next Jesse Palmer, the NFL quarterback who sought love through rose ceremonies on a televised dating show. In a serious relationship, Bigbie heard the pitch but declined the star turn.”

Sorry Ladies, he’s taken. No roses for you. For now, keep praying for that fateful day when you walk down that isle and become Mrs. Mark Mulder will come true.

Anyway, that was taken from an article from today’s P-D. It also discusses a conversation between Bigbie and ex Cardinal reliever turned Rocky, Mike DeJean. Apparently Bigbie was dealing with some frustrations and discouragement in the midst of his crappy season. DeJean encouraged Bigbie, and told him that he should play for the Cardinals and Tony LaRussa if ever possible. DeJean’s words have seemingly turned out to be prophetic and as we all know Bigbie’s now got a new oppurtunity before him.

I do hope he turns out and all, but we keep hearing about “tools” and “potential” in reference to Bigbie, but he’s 28 years old. Bigbie fancies himself a “late bloomer.” Well, if he doesn’t work out, there are a couple of potential late bloomers behind him in Rodriguez and Gall. Rodriguez is currently tearing the cover off the ball down in the PR. 1.227 OPS. He could likely be Larry’s replacement if he doesn’t pan out. Then he would be the next Jesse Palmer, as in another good looking athlete looking for work. What is Palmer doing these days? CFL is what I think I heard….

Quick hits

A few quickies-

• Tee ball anyone? Here is a distrubing fact about our new 2nd basemen Junior Spivey. I knew he suffered a wrist injury last year, but I didn’t know how exactly. It was from hitting balls off a tee. MLB.com’s Tom Singer takes a shot at Spivey “Maybe he has a 5-year-old nephew who can show him how to do it.”
• Felix Rodriguez, a reliever possibly on the Cardinals radar also suffered a freak injury last season, slipping while stepping out of the shower resulting in a cartilage tear in his knee. It’s called a shower mat, Felix.
• Stat guru/ UZR inventor/Free lance consultant for the Cardinals Mitchel Litchman likes the Enc signing “Encarnacion is a true CF’er and should be an excellent defender in RF or LF. His hitting is below par for a corner OF’er but his defense makes up for that. Hopefully the Cardinal coaching staff can teach him to run the bases a little better. 15 ml was a little more than I was hoping for, but he is still worth it at that. Spivey was a steal, so Cards fans should be thrilled at the combination of both acquisitions. The only way they were going to get more production out of 2B and the OF was to spend a lot more money (for example, Encarnacion and Jones would be a killer platoon). Juan is nice backup for Edmonds as well. A lot better than Taguchi. The lineup won’t be as good as last year, the pitching staff (other than the pen) should be about the same, so they should have a pretty good team (90-93 wins off the top of my head). Encarnacion’s UZR the last 4 years: +6 (CF) +20 +10 +16″ Dan @ Get, Up Baby uses UZR to put a silver lining in this signing as well.
• From the Just Shut Up Files: “Mark it down: It’s going to be another Babe Ruth,” Johnny’s father, Jimmy Damon reportedly said. “They sent Johnny off just like they sent off Babe Ruth. It’s going to be another big, big mistake. They made the biggest mistake of their lives.” Sorry Jimmy, your son’s a heckuva ballplayer, but the curse of the Idiot doesn’t have quite the same ring to it. While I am on the subject of Damon, I am really tired of seeing all the photos of him getting his haircut and posing in his Yankee uni. Good for him and all, but the “it’s Johnny” show is getting downright intolerable.
• Looking back, there were many who did not like some of last year’s dealings made by the current champion Chicago White Sox’s GM, Ken Williams. Jermaine Dye, the MVP of the World series was said to be a wasted move. Signing A.J. Pierzynski was jeered. The trade of Carlos Lee for Scott Podsednik was seen as a joke and a poor way to clear some payroll. And I agreed (and to some point still do). Not to mention Garland was seen as an underachiever, as well as Contreras. In the preseason, the White Sox were not even the favorites to win the AL Central, let alone the World Series. My point: For all our analysis and sabermetric projections, baseball is still summed up as “youneverknow”. Most of the Cardinals offseason roster moves rate as a blunders at worst and at best a wash, and I agree with much of the criticism, and have moaned along with the rest of you. But for now I’ll use the White Sox as an inpsiration to at least have some blind optimism.
• Get it while it’s free:The Birdhouse has an excellent 3 part interview with Cardinal VP of Baseball Development Jeff Luhnow. The Highlights:More Dominican & Venezuelan players are on the horizon due to our new emphasis in those countries, response to the critics that the ownership is greedy (which would make Bernie Miklasz roll his eyes), why no AJ, and how the Cardinals take a mixed approach to the draft. Well worth the read. Luhnow to me was a great hire, and the more I get to know about him, the more I like him. Because he’s there, I feel more confident that our farm system will slowly but surely climb out of the gutter and one day be the envy of other clubs. He’s very balanced in his use of stats & scouting.
• On a personal note, I want to brag and say I have the best wife in the universe. Not only is she beautiful, fun, and sweet, she is a great gift giver. She suprised the heck out of me, giving me an autographed Albert Pujols ball. I was speechless! All I can say is she’s the best!

EDIT 10:28PM Well, crap. Sorry, the Birdhouse free preview is over. The Birdwatch has got it covered in more detail.

Happy Festivus!

It’s a Festivus for the Rest of Us! Be sure to gather around the Festivus Pole today and air your grievances to your loved ones. Remember, Festivus isn’t over until you pin your old man.

I’ll start here with airing some grievances. We all Ha Ha’ed like the Simpson’s Nelson the Bully giving Milhouse a wedgie when the Cubs signed Jacque Jones to a 3Y/$16M contract. Well, the HA HA! is on us for signing Juan Encarnacion to a 3Y/$15M contract. I don’t know if the Baseball Gods are angry at us for mocking the Cubs fans or what, as I thought that was an acceptable sacrifice to them, but this is bad news. Encarnacion is actually worse then Jones over his career. Jones has been a better fielder, a better hitter and a better baserunner. Based on last season, it would appear that Enc is on the way up and Jones is on the way down, as Encarnacion posted a nifty line of .287/.349/.447 in 05. Hopefully he can continue that kind of success. But I’m not holding my breath. This is far from a Festivus Miracle. Not to pile on, but here is a blurb from last year’s BPro

Encarnacion looks good in a uniform, plays right field well, and occasionally hits a mistake a long way. He’s also one of the worst regular right fielders in baseball.

Yuck.

To leave on a high note, click here to hear the Feats of Strength.

UPDATE: 11:43AM. Well, Enc is official. Junior Spivey is immenent.

UPDATE 2:36PM Spivey is now official. $1.3M, seems like a good deal to me. Spivey said he’s always dreamed of playing for the Cardinals since he was a kid in Oklahoma. I like the signing. Beats what we had. Hopefully he stays healthy, but if not Plan B is Hector. Interesting, December 23rd was also when we signed Eck last year, another non tendered player. We now have a non-tender DP combo. Another Festivus Miracle!

Here is your (semi)official 2006 St. Louis Cardinal lineup

Eckstein
Spivey
Pujols
Edmonds
Rolen
Bigbie
Encarnacion
Molina
P

2ndbaseolutions

Birdland (St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold’s blog) is reporting Junior Spivey is deciding between the Cardinals and the Rockies. Wow, what a decision. Spivey can choose to go somewhere where he can inflate his batting stats at Coors and then move on to bigger and better contracts. Or he can come to St. Louis, get sprinkled with magic second baseman dust, play for a winner, and basically do the same thing. That is a toughie. I wonder how much money is involved.

The oft injured second baseman has a .270/.354/.436 career line, but is coming off a crapper of a year, partially due to the fact that he was hampered by injuries. Seems he’s always hampered by injuries, but I say what the hey. Whoever we plug in at the keystone seems to work out somehow, and I’ll take Spivey and his .790 career OPS over AAAron Miles, Deivi Cruz and Hector Luna.

If Spivey doesn’t pan out, Plan B looks to be Willie Harris. I’d like Willie, he just seems like a LaRussa type guy, in that he can do a lot of the little things like steal a base, field decently, play different positions (though he belongs at 2nd, but we all know Willie would get moved all over the place in St. Louis, as LaRussa is a bit eccentric. Marlon Anderson in left? Guh?)

Heck, try as many guys at second as you can and see who sticks. Just please no Eck/Miles DP combo, for the sake of my own pride as a Cardinal fan.

Of other note, the Mariners picked up Matt Lawton for $400k with about $1.25M in incentives. I don’t understand why the Cards would pass on a guy with a career .368 OBP when he was that cheap. Roids be darned, he came clean, he was very affordable and has more experience and success then any of our other corner outfielders combined. It doesn’t make sense we would pick up a guy with a bad rep like Ponson and ignore Lawton. I don’t really like Lawton personally, but he most likely would’ve been better then Larry Bigbie. Or Juan Encarnacion, who we also have interest in. Juan is coming off a good year, but it smells more like a fluke and less like a breakthrough.

We laughed with glee at the Cubs for signing Jacque Jones, but if we end up with Enc inked this winter for any substantial years/money it will be like one of those stupid Outback commercials where 1 person gets hit in the head with the boomerang and then it comes around and hits the other person in the head, and suddenly both are insanely stupid. (I’m not the only one who has seen those commercials, am I?)

BTW, like the new design?

Further Thoughts on Sir Sidney

The Birdhouse has an excellent article on previous successes of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan in reaching out to a player who has battled with alcoholism. And there is also an excellent post at the Baltimore Sun by sportswriter Roch Kubatko talking which goes into some detail about Sidney admitting his problem to his family and taking steps in getting clean.

When I first heard the rumors of the Cardinals possibly being interest in Ponson, I thought immediately that it was just speculation, nothing more. At least I had hoped it was, because not only was he struggling professionally, he was quite possibly on his way to outdoing Strawberry, Gooden & Canseco with his off the field antics. Then when I heard the news we signed him this morning I was in shock like most of you. Royally ticked to put it mildly.

But since then I’ve changed my tune. The Cardinals wouldn’t sign him if he was still showed indications that he was going to continue living the same way he was. And it takes a big man to admit you have a problem and get help. Ponson has done that, and for that I commend him. Alcohol can be a tough demon to face. Without getting into too much details, I know from the home I grew up in how hard it can be.

I hope he continues to take it one day at a time because it’s not easy. But it can be done. I also pray that some of his new teammates can befriend him and help him stay accountable.

Kudos to the Cardinals for giving another guy a shot and turning his life and his career around. When you fail, the world can seem to turn it’s back on you, especially when you are a public figure. It takes some guts to reach out to a guy, rather then kick him while he’s down. I commend all the teams that may have reached out to Sidney as well. It must feel good for him for clubs to show some level of confidence in him to be willing to give him a second chance.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I know I will be rooting for the guy, on and off the field. I hope others can look past his failings and find it in themselves to root for the guy too.

Caribbean Jerk

Ah, the life of a professional athlete. One day you can be in jail, the next you can find yourself signing a contract with 7 digits in it. My beloved Cardinals signed the guy who got into trouble for wrecklessly operating his boat. We signed the guy who punched a judge in his native Aruba. We signed the guy who has 2 DUI’s this year. We signed a guy who has a reputation for treating fans like total garbage. That’s ugly. And then there’s his professional career, which is almost equally ugly as of late.

I understand the fact that Ponson will be signed to a low dollar contract. I also understand it could possibly pay off. My initial reaction was “what in the..!?” But, I’ll give him a chance in my own heart for redemption, but with at least some reticence. But maybe he can turn his life around. Ex-Cardinal catcher Darrell Porter, for one, had his problems with alcohol. His life took an amazing turn. From the photos I saw of him earlier he looks to have dropped some weight, perhaps that is a good sign. According to Metsblog, Ponson has come out of rehab more focused and fit then ever. For the Cardinals to take a chance on this guy, it does say something.

But I do find this this statement in today’s P-D column disturbing:

Until Tuesday, rookie Anthony Reyes was considered the favorite to move into the
fifth starter’s role for the Cardinals following the defection of Matt Morris to
the Giants for a three-year, $27 million contract.

So now Reyes is not the favorite to be the 5th starter? Is Ponson just competition for the young righty? Or is this a sign of a forthcoming trade? Maybe I’m just overreacting to all of this.

On a side note, there are many more who are in the “Wade Miller is garbage camp” then I thought there would be. I see Ryan at the Diaspora’s point, he does have to be perfect and that equals more injuries and more frustration. I still think he’s worth a shot for cheap. But maybe that’s out of the question now.

The P-D is also reporting a signing of Felix Rodriguez is immenent.

Bo Hart is done as a Cardinal farmhand. We’ll all remember the Summer of Bo. Scott Seabol is done, too. Thanks, Seabass for the victory over the Yanks last season. Mike Lincoln & Mike Mahoney are gone too.

The free agent pool got larger, but not much better. I’d be sorta interested in Eric Byrnes, Willie Harris and Chad Bradford. Harris is the guy I would like to see. Byrnes is one of those guys who plays the game all out, so some Cardinal fans would blindly love him, despite the fact he’s only a platoon type-player.

Ex-Red Sock Brian Daubach was invited to spring training.