Reverend Redbird

Preaching the Gospel of St. Louis Cardinal Baseball

Win Probability Added-Cubs @ Cards 4/20/06

Posted by The Right Reverend on April 22, 2006

(From Fangraphs.com

It wouldn't take a chart to tell you the game was all Cardinals. Albert's 2 run home run got things kicked off in the bottom of the first. The home run was Albert's 1000th hit, tying Todd Helton for the second-fastest player to reach that milestone. Then, in the bottom of the second Cubs starter Jerome Williams commited the cardinal sin of walking the pitcher with the bases loaded to score Juan Encarnacion. That put the Cards ahead 3-0. David Eckstein then singled, driving in Yadier Molina to make it 4-0 Cards. John Rodriguez hit a sac-fly to score Aaron Miles, furthering the lead to 5-0. Then Albert Pujols doubled in Mulder and Eckstein to put the Redbirds ahead 7-0, all in the second inning.  

The Cubs got on the board when Michael Barrett hit a three run shot in the 4th to make it 7-3. But then Jim Edmonds put the game even further out of reach in the bottom of the 5th by hitting a 2 run-shot to deep left to make it 9-3.

Mulder was sharp, pitching 8 innings, allowing 3 runs, 5 hits and a walk. What's been impressive about Mulder is his sterling KK/B ratio of 7.5.  But he has developed a bad case of gopheritis, allowing 5 HR in 28 innings. Maybe it's the new park, maybe he's just challenging hitters more. I'm sure he's not turning into Eric Milton, but you'd like to see him cut the homers down.

Top Win Probability Added- A.K.A. The heroes of the game-

  1. Albert Pujols 20.3%
  2. Mark Mulder 12.1% (Pitching)
  3. Mark Mulder 4.4% (Batting) That Mulder guy keeps producing at the plate.
  4. Aaron Miles 4.1%- Drew a key walk, and drew 2 walks in the game. I thought this guy didn't have any plate discipline?

The Cubbie goat of the game (pun intended)-

Jerome Williams -37% win probability. Jacque Jones deserves mention with his 3 k's against Mark Mulder -5.2%.

For an explanation of Win Probability, click here.

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One Response to “Win Probability Added-Cubs @ Cards 4/20/06”

  1. tarot said

    I almost never leave a response, but i did some searching and wound up here Win Probability Added-Cubs
    @ Cards 4/20/06 Reverend Redbird. And I actually do
    have a couple of questions for you if it’s allright. Is it simply me or does it look like some of the responses look like they are written by brain dead folks? :-P And, if you are writing at additional social sites, I’d like to keep up with everything fresh you have
    to post. Would you make a list of all of all your social sites like your Facebook page, twitter feed, or linkedin profile?

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