One 1000, Two 1000

The last two games have had some exciting milestones, first Carpenter's 1000th K, then tonight Albert's 1000th hit came via the long ball. If you haven't already heard this a thousand times already, Albert has tied Todd Helton for the 2nd fastest to reach 1000 hits, needing only 3,003 at bats to get there. (Whew! That was a lot of thousands!)

What's also amazing is the recent home run tear Albert is on. Albert has already topped Mark McGwire for the most home runs hit by a Cardinal in the month of April, and there are still nine games left in the month, all in Albert's new favorite playground.  Albert thus far has homered once in every 5.27 at bats. To put it in prospective, Barry Bonds went yard in every 6.52 at bats in 2001. There is no way am I saying Albert will keep up this insane pace and break the record, but I did have a hunch that this is the year Pujols hits 50, and it looks like he's well on his way.

Jimmy is looking like he's back to his old self, going deep two games in a row now. Joe Sheehan had an article at Baseball Prospectus about Edmonds and his potential to make the Hall of Fame. It's a free article, so be sure to check it out. The gist of the article is that Jimmy has a pretty impressive resume-

• Edmonds has been the best center fielder in the game since 2000.
• He's had some impressive postseasons, including one of the most memorable home runs in the postseason in Cardinal history.
• He's played very well way past his prime. Sheehan says we've yet to see his decline, but I think we've begun to see it last year, though it wasn't steep.
• 8 Gold Gloves certainly help.
• Though he's never won the MVP, he's had 5 or 6 MVP caliber seasons, including one heck of a 2004.

Whether or not Edmonds belongs in the Hall is certainly debatable, but he's still got time to create more of a compelling argument for himself. He is in my opinion the best Cardinal center fielder ever. Going on his seventh season in St. Louis, Edmonds' OPS+ has been 148,150,163,161,173 and 136. Edmonds has won the Gold Glove every one of those seasons. (Though some of the GG's are debatable.) He's created 8.5 runs per 27 outs over that span, providing superior offense compared to any Cardinal center fielder overall. (Though Lankford certainly had some very nice and often overlooked seasons, most notably '98-'99. And of course Willie had '85) 

In my opinion, the top 5 Cardinal center fielders of all time are:

1. Jim Edmonds
2. Ray Lankford
3. Willie McGee
4. Curt Flood
5. Pepper Martin

Booing and Bat-flipping

Much has been made recently about the issue on whether to boo or not to boo. Albert Pujols recently came out and condemned the booing of Izzy and Encarnacion, and I appreciate him being a leader and sticking up for his teammates. My personal opinion: If you paid the price for the ticket, and you want to boo, that’s your thing. I’m not going to boo because it probably does more harm then good. Tony LaRussa has said how hard Jason Isringhausen is on himself, and I don’t think him hearing boos is going to help. Sure, he’s a professional getting paid a lot of money. He should let it roll off of him. But ballplayers are human beings, and they have egos just like you and me. Take Edgar Renteria. (Please!) Tony LaRussa wondered if Edgar could take the heat of playing in a baseball rabid town like Boston, where the fans let you hear it when you fail, and Edgar went and had a miserable season in the field and at the plate. Now traded to the Braves, it appears that LaRussa was correct in his assessment about Renteria.

I have no idea what Juan Encarnacion is thinking when he heard loud boos in his first week at Busch Stadium, but I’m sure it wasn’t at all what he expected given our fan’s reputation for being supportive. I am sure however, that it  isn’t helping. Winning has spoiled us as Cardinal fans, and we expect excellence and should. But booing isn’t going to suddenly alert a player to get in gear, nor will it help him go from being sorry to spectacular.

I will tell you one thing a ticket does not buy you, and that is the right to act like a complete jackass. I was absolutely disgusted when I read a recent editorial column by Brian Burwell at the P-D. It told the story of a grandfather with his grandchildren at the game Sunday hearing a nearby fan getting cursed out, heckled and booed when the nearby fan caught a homerun ball hit by one of the Reds players. The drunken “fans”-and I use the word “fan” loosely- were insisting with much vulgarity for the man to throw the ball back.

First, this brings me to a question-If these people were real Cardinal fans, why are they insisting the man throw the ball back? “Throwing it back” is a Cub fan tradition, and do we really want to imitate Cub fans? Secondly, what sort of a sick person must one be to curse out a person in a drunken rage over a baseball, and while there are children around? These sort of people should be immediately removed from the game by security. I don’t care how much they payed for their ticket, by acting like that they forfeit their right to be there.

Jason Marquis All Grown Up

Jason Marquis has grown up before our very eyes, Cardinal fans. With some help and patience from Cardinal pitching Coach Dave Duncan, Marquis has become the pitcher his former coach Leo Mazzone hoped he would be. That is no knock on Mazzone, as Marquis was labeled as stubborn when he got to St. Louis, and he has been stubborn in some ways. (Tipping pitches, nibbling, etc.) But since his brilliant performance against Washington last August 27^th when he pitched a complete game shutout, Marquis has been a different pitcher. Different as in he throws strikes. Since he began to heed Duncan’s sermons of pounding the strike zone with two-seam fast balls, Marquis has been sharp, as demonstrated in this stat line-

SINCE AUGUST 27 2005

• 2.44 ERA
• K/9 5.2
• BB/9 1.1
• K/BB 4.75
• WHIP 0.94
• HR/9 1.2
• W-L 7-1
• 66.1 IP

All this from a pitcher many experts have prophesied doom over because of some of his poor peripheral stats. It's a contract year for Jason, and I don't see any reason why he would now change his approach given this newfound success he's had. If he can continue it, he's going to find himself a very rich man and a successful "middle-of-the-rotation" pitcher in this league for years to come. Walt Jocketty has said he will depart from his normal mode of operation and negotiate contracts during the season. With Marquis entering his prime, as in he will be 28 this year, he may be wise to lock him up now.

Juan’s Not Here, Man

"90% of the game is half mental."

"Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting." -Yogi Berra

Albert Pujols may have let Juan Encarnacion off of the hook yesterday, but I haven't. Sunday's dropped catch and missed double play opportunity put the exclamation point on Juan's rough start in St. Louis. It's sort of odd, because Friday night he made a terrific catch in the top of the ninth to save a run. Seeing that play made me recall a blurb on Encarnacion I read in John Dewan's book, The Fielding Bible.

"Encarnacion has the skills, but not the consistency. He has good speed and often makes spectacular catches, but then he turns around and botches routine plays."

 If you are a subscriber at the Birdhouse, you may have seen Brian Walton point out that Encarnacion hit .331 with runners in scoring position last season for the Marlins, tied for 5th in the NL with Derrek Lee. He also was tied for 4th in The Hardball Times "Clutch"stat rankings. This year is another story, as Juan is batting .063(!) with runners in scoring position. Granted, much of what we call clutch hitting consists of luck, but it's more then just that. There's a mental aspect, and it's obvious Juan is in a funk right now.

When I'm not following the Cards I consider myself a bit of a latent Tiger fan, as my family is from Michigan and the first baseball game I ever went to was at ol' Tiger Stadium. Anyway, I was lurking around Tiger bloggerdom when I came across this profile of slugging Tiger first baseman Chris Shelton, dug up by Bilfer at www.detroittigersweblog.com. 

 "Gary Gillette profiles Shelton:One of Shelton’s biggest assets is what one member of the Detroit organization called “controlled aggression.” The key element of controlled aggression is good plate discipline, but Shelton also is restrained enough to not get too pumped up when he comes to bat in a key situation with runners on base. Too often, good hitters will unconsciously change their approach when they get the opportunity to drive in the go-ahead or winning runs. In their anxiousness to help their club, they end up helping the pitcher by swinging at marginal pitches and getting themselves out."

It would appear to me at least that Juan is the anti-Shelton, as displayed when he whiffed at three straight Todd Coffey pitches Friday night and tooka seat. He must be getting far too pumped up in key situations. And he must be changing his approach in his own anxiousness to help the club, because he certainly has been swinging (or should I say flailing?) and missing a lot of marginal pitches. I'm sure Cardinal hitting coach Hal McRae is working on getting this guy to relax. Between the botched plays in the outfield and the poor hitting, especially poor hitting when it counts, makes it obvious that Juan is mentally not there. While I'm sure the boos from the usually supportive St. Louis fans aren't helping, Juan just needs to relax, be patient, realize he's signed a three year contract and (for better or worse) isn't going anywhere, so he may as well have fun and play baseball.

 If he returns to the Juan of old that still isn't great, but it's better the ball-dropping, hacking version we see now.  

Don’t Boo Izzy

"I stink right now, that's the bottom line."-Jason Isringhausen.

Things have been tough all over for Izzy this week, as he's given up two home runs this week at the worst possible times. Izzy was met with a chorus of boos as he left the game today, and while I don't find it fitting for the "best fans in baseball" I can understand the frustration. (Side note:See Matt Leach's blog post on the booing issue. I love Leach, but doesn't he remember the booing of Edgar and Tino last season? It's not unprecedented.) Anyway, if it was just the home run given up today, that would be one thing. But I think Izzy wasn't just drawing the ire of the fans for today's game, but the bitterness of getting swept by the Cubs in embarrassing fashion on national television still is lingering.

But I don't like the booing still, as Izzy seems to be sincerely pitching his heart out and has for the Cardinals since 2002. He's brought a consistency that was lacking for some time. (Remember the Dave Veres days or worse the Ricky Bottalico days?) I know we as fans have a "what have you done for me lately?" mentality and lately Izzy has stunk. He's the first to admit that. But right now, he is our closer, and has been a fine one and I don't expect him to fall of a cliff a la Keith Foulke last season.

I don't expect Izzy to be dominant, however, either. For starters, his walk rate ballooned last year to 4.12 per 9. His K per 9 rate has steadily declined each year. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) ERA of 3.78 was vastly disproportionate to his ERA of 2.14, and his high LOB% of 87% reeks of luck.

Don't get me wrong, I still think he can be solid even considering his terrible performances this week, but just prepare yourself for more "hiccups" throughout the duration of his contract, which could be until 08 if the Cardinals decide to pick up his option. And please, be classy and don't boo when they happen. (You can, however, hope that Jocketty and Co. can take a page out of the A's and Red Sox book, and maybe draft a young stud college closer.)

Bullpen junk

With the recent shakiness of the bullpen, some of you may be interested in these numbers from BP-

• 2005 Izzy-WXRL 3.7, EqERA 2.35. 2006 PECOTA Projected Izzy-WXRL 1.2, EqERA 4.11
• 2005 Tavarez WXRL 2.3. EqERA 4.13 2006 PECOTA Projected Looper-WXRL 0.5, EqERA 5.35
• 2005 Al Reyes WXRL 2.7, EqERA  2.39, 2006 PECOTA Projected Wainwright WXRL 1.7, EqERA 5.11
• 2005 Thompson WXRL 1.6, EqERA 4.08, 2006 PECOTA Projected Thompson WXRL 0.7, EqERA 4.40
• 2005 King WXRL -1.1, EqERA 4.24, 2006 PECOTA projected Rincon WXRL 0.3, EqERA 5.55
• 2005 Eldred WXRL 0.7, EqERA ?, 2006, 2006 PECOTA projected Hancock WXRL 0.1, EqERA 6.49

Those projections are pretty ugly and seem too pessimistic.

It's always an adventure with Izzy, but I think he'll soundly beat that projection, though so far, not so good. His walks were up last year, and his k's were down. Still, he's still much better then most Cardinal fans give him credit for. The projections for Wainwright are including 21 starts and coming off of a so-so year in AAA. I know you have to take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but he looked sharp, striking out 11 in 15.2 innings, allowing only 1 earned run. I do expect a crappy year from Rincon and these projections confirm that. He's had 3 years of bad control and he didn't fare well against left-handers last year, his sole purpose of being. And I'm guessing these projections on Looper are not taking into consideration his surgery and are more looking at his disasterous 2005. If his K's per 9 go back up to around the 6 per 9 range, he'll be more then fine.  

Really, I think these guys should be fine once the dust starts to settle. If you remember early in the season last year between Izzy hitting the DL and Eldred's heart problems things got a little funky at times, too.

*WXRL (From Baseball Prospectus. Expected wins added over replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters.)

*EqERA (From Baseball Prospectus.EqERA is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqERA = 4.50. While a major league pitcher's equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher's equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects, and the quality of a pitcher's defense.)

Shameless Self Promotion

I had a little piece over at the Birdhouse today, feel free to check it out. (It's free)

Cards another step closer to Ryan Freel?

Aaron Miles will eventually come back to earth, and a move that went a little under the radar was Cincinnati picking up Brandon Phillips. How many infielders does this team need? There's a thought he may be traded to Philadelphia to play third, but here's hoping Jocketty can swing a deal for Freel. For real. Freel has already stolen 5 bases this season and is hitting very well.

The Village Idiot

Earlier today I dubbed Juan Encarnacion as the new "village idiot." I realize it's early in the season and maybe it's a bit harsh to start calling the guy names. But it's not just his poor play thus far this season that makes me call him the village idiot, it's his career as a whole. For a guy who is blessed with such athletic talent, he's rarely maximized it.

• Last year, according to Dan Fox's metric, incremental runs, he scored -2.38 runs less then expected. To put things in perspective, Larry Walker, who has a terrific reputation for being a good baserunner scored 2.33 more runs then expected in limited duty.  
• In the field, according to another Hardball Times writer, David Gassko, Juan Encarnacion was about 11 runs below average. Baseball Prospectus FRAA (fielding runs above average) Encarnacion scored a -10. According to John Dewan's book, The Fielding bible, Juan Encarnacion was -20 plays below average in the last 3 years.
• His arm may be strong, but Encarnacion has been poor at holding runners, as in 334 oppurtunities, runners have taken 192 extra bases a 57.5%. (That may be a little blind to some of you, pick up the book The Fielding Bible and you'll find it's well below average.)

And these are just the little things, but it's the little things that matter to a club managed by Tony LaRussa. That's not taking into consideration more important things, like his lack of plate discipline. Encarnacion only walks about 7% of the time, and is  completely unsuited in the #2 hole. And for playing right field, his power is below average, with only a .172 isolated power.

Why exactly did the Cardinals sign him to a 3 year contract? Maybe he's Jim Edmonds eventual replacement in center field where his skills would be more tolerable, or maybe he was the only option available in a poor winter market, but over the next three years he's going to be hard to put up with. He will be the village idiot until he can prove to me otherwise. If he can hit like he did last season for the next three years, I won't complain again.  But I find that bloody unlikely.

The Right Reverend Preaches from the Fielding Bible

Recently I picked up the book, The Fielding Bible by John Dewan. If you haven’t got a copy of it yet, I highly recommend it. First of all, I got to give the Baseball Info Solutions guys a ton of credit, because compiling all these great stats took a ton of work.  Basically what they did was review tons of video in order to determine what plays the average player would make, what plays would be more difficult (plus plays). Then with that info they give fielders pluses or minuses on making above average plays, or not making plays the average player makes. Of course I’m over-simplifying, pick up the book for yourself for a more thorough explanation.

Here I just want to share a little bit about the Cardinals defense and how they fared.

1b-Albert Pujols-I know we hear it a lot about him winning a gold glove one day, and I’m glad someone is giving Pujols some credit, as I knew my eyes weren’t playing tricks on me. He was the best in the NL at handling bunts and was pretty good at fielding grounders, too. Dewan says he would’ve given Pujols the Gold Glove.

2b-Last year, no one was better at turning the double play then Mark Grudzelaniek, converting 104 double plays out of 166. (Almost 63%) While no one knows who is going to log the most innings at second this year, it’s rather safe to say that they won’t be as good at turning the DP this year. Aaron Miles ranked 32 last year at turning the DP 45/100 ops and Spivey (if he ever finds his way to St. Louis) ranked 20th, converting 37/73. But encouragingly, (and rather suprisingly) Aaron Miles ranked right behind Orlando Hudson in terms of the plus/minus system in 2004. That year he displayed great range, especially when it came to making plays to his left, but in 05 he regressed to below average. I’m not sure why there was a drop off, but with the help of Jose Oquendo he could turn out to provide pretty good defense up the middle. (Spivey is a pretty good defender too, scoring a +24 the last three seasons, ranking 9th overall among all 2nd basemen.) So not to fear Redbird fans, the middle infield should be fine even without Grud.

3b-Scott Rolen-Adrian Beltre actually ranks quite higher in the +/- system, +71 over +46. But had Rolen stayed healthy last year, he could’ve been closer to the top, as he was on pace to have an amazing defensive season, better then 04 when he scored a remarkable +37. Abe Nunez really was solid last year in his stead. (+9)

SS-David Eckstein-According to the stats, he’s terrific at turning the double play and is overall a pretty decent shortstop. He’s not so good at making plays to his right (-7) but fortunately the guy to his right is excellent at making plays to his left.  Confused?

LF-Larry Bigbie-According to the +/- system he was the best left fielder in baseball (+17) in 2004. He and Taguchi form a nifty left field combo, at least on D.

CF-This one I don’t get. Edmonds ranks a -6, 25th overall. Other systems liked Jimmy this year (PMR, Gassko’s, etc.) Maybe he has lost a step, but he still makes the highlight real catches and he does have a golden arm. He’s been the best in both baserunner holds (.464) and baserunner kills (19) over the last three seasons.

RF-Encarnacion-He made a bonehead play today, and according to the system Encarnacion has been a somewhat of a bonehead  in the field -20 the last three years, ranking 25th overall. He’s got a rep for an arm, but ranks 21st overall at baserunner holds. (.575) This confuses me a bit, because Mitchel Litchman ranks Encarnacion pretty high in his system Ultimate Zone Rating. Most stat heads agree that UZR is the most superior fielding metric, but other systems I’ve read aren’t too high on Encarnacion, either.

I hope my little breakdown of the book makes some sense, like I said, get the book to get a more in depth explanation of the stats. But overall, it 06 will be another good year of Cardinal defense, with improvement in the outfield and infield with Rolen back. My only gripe is that the +’s or -’s weren’t translated into runs.