Posted by The Right Reverend on April 12, 2006
With the recent shakiness of the bullpen, some of you may be interested in these numbers from BP-
- 2005 Izzy-WXRL 3.7, EqERA 2.35. 2006 PECOTA Projected Izzy-WXRL 1.2, EqERA 4.11
- 2005 Tavarez WXRL 2.3. EqERA 4.13 2006 PECOTA Projected Looper-WXRL 0.5, EqERA 5.35
- 2005 Al Reyes WXRL 2.7, EqERA 2.39, 2006 PECOTA Projected Wainwright WXRL 1.7, EqERA 5.11
- 2005 Thompson WXRL 1.6, EqERA 4.08, 2006 PECOTA Projected Thompson WXRL 0.7, EqERA 4.40
- 2005 King WXRL -1.1, EqERA 4.24, 2006 PECOTA projected Rincon WXRL 0.3, EqERA 5.55
- 2005 Eldred WXRL 0.7, EqERA ?, 2006, 2006 PECOTA projected Hancock WXRL 0.1, EqERA 6.49
Those projections are pretty ugly and seem too pessimistic.
It's always an adventure with Izzy, but I think he'll soundly beat that projection, though so far, not so good. His walks were up last year, and his k's were down. Still, he's still much better then most Cardinal fans give him credit for. The projections for Wainwright are including 21 starts and coming off of a so-so year in AAA. I know you have to take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but he looked sharp, striking out 11 in 15.2 innings, allowing only 1 earned run. I do expect a crappy year from Rincon and these projections confirm that. He's had 3 years of bad control and he didn't fare well against left-handers last year, his sole purpose of being. And I'm guessing these projections on Looper are not taking into consideration his surgery and are more looking at his disasterous 2005. If his K's per 9 go back up to around the 6 per 9 range, he'll be more then fine.
Really, I think these guys should be fine once the dust starts to settle. If you remember early in the season last year between Izzy hitting the DL and Eldred's heart problems things got a little funky at times, too.
*WXRL (From Baseball Prospectus. Expected wins added over replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters.)
*EqERA (From Baseball Prospectus.EqERA is calibrated to an ideal major league where EqERA = 4.50. While a major league pitcher's equivalent stats should not differ substantially from his actual numbers, a minor league pitcher's equivalent stats undergo translation and may differ significantly. Equivalent stats also adjust for park effects, and the quality of a pitcher's defense.)