Reverend Redbird

Preaching the Gospel of St. Louis Cardinal Baseball

Win Probability Added Cubs @ Cardinals 4/23/06

Posted by The Right Reverend on April 24, 2006

Cubs @ Cards 4/23/06

Chart from 

Maddux was on the top of his game and Marquis got away from his game.  Part of that was evident when Marquis threw 3 nearly identical pitches to Jacque Jones. I'm not sure how many of you saw this, but Jacque had a little smile on his face after the 3rd inside pitch, then proceeded to hammer the 4th one over the right field wall. 

Aaron Miles didn't help with his 2 errors, either. Had it not been for Miles, Juan Pierre would've never reached base in the 5th inning, and Aramis Ramirez would've led off the 6th. Instead, Marquis ended up hanging an off-speed pitch and Ramirez hit the second home-run of the day, and it ended up being the biggest difference maker. + 15.5% WPA for the Cubs. (Stick to your strengths, Jason!)

Oh, well. It's hard to hate a guy like Maddux and it least the Redbirds took the series. The Pirates are in town, this time around hopefully the Cards can fare better against Oliver Perez then they did the last time. Things should be different with Chris Carpenter taking the mound tonight.

  • +30.9% Win probabilty added from Maddux
  • Cardinal hitters were a combined -31.4% WPA. Only Scott Rolen, Hector Luna and Gary Bennett contributed a positive percentage

5 Responses to “Win Probability Added Cubs @ Cardinals 4/23/06”

  1. I watched yesterday’s game partially (after the Yankees game of course). I must say quite a disappointment. As I understand it, the Cubs just really were the better team, yesterday that is. Of course Maddux was a great pitcher (and shows he still has it).

    The most games I watched this season were Yankees games, but I am amazed by the 11 homeruns from Pujols thus far. That’s 11 homeruns in 18 games…

    Should he keep that up, he will have (162/18=9 – thus 11*9=) 99 homeruns. Haha, we all know that’s not going to happen; but lets just say that he is off to a magnificent start. And the man isn’t called the machine for nothing.

    Will this be a 50+ HR season for The Machine? What do you think? Or am I being way too optimistic?

  2. I really think this is the year he hits 50+. I wouldn’t call that assessment overly optimistic at all.

  3. I’m not trying to sound like a smart-aleck here, but what is this chart supposed to show again?

  4. No problem, and you don't seem like a smart-aleck. Basically, what the charts show is the probability of a win which a team has after certain baseball events happen.

    For example, when Aramis Ramirez hit his 2 run jack, the Cardinals shot at winning the game became pretty darn slim. No, you don't need a graph to tell you that, but the good of Win Probability is it shows almost exactly how much a certain play effects a team's shot at winning or losing.

    It helps you put a real value with something like, say a sacrifice bunt, or a 2 run homer, or grounding into a double play. To quote The Hardball Times David Studeman "WPA captures the dynamic of watching a game. It expresses the highs and lows of each event in a game, and also expresses the contextual importance of each situation and game event."

    To get more of an explanation, see this article and especially this one.

  5. Man, I just don’t want to think about the possible season Pujols will have. It is mind-boggling I believe you would say.

    possibly 50+ HR’s
    AVG +/-.340

    How many RBI’s do you predict he will have?

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